It was all very easy in the past. There was predictability. There was regularity. There was routine. There was David Sweeney.
Now that’s all past. Not only has the high priest of the research temple announced that he’s stepping down, but we’ve been battered by a pandemic, bewildered by Brexit, and dumbstruck by dead cats tossed out from Downing Street. And don’t get me started on the tsunami of strategies, policies and new initiatives.
As you may have guessed, this is all just a way of getting my excuses in early. I’ll give you a horizon scan for 2022 but, like being on a boat in a storm, the horizon appears to be listing alarmingly. With that in mind, here are the points to look out for in the forthcoming year.
We will return to some form of normality
I’m writing this as the government launches Plan B for tackling Omicron, so I may be a bit optimistic here. However, come spring, I think we will see more of a return to in-person conferences and meetings. This will impact hugely on research: the development of research ideas, proposals and networks is much easier and more productive in person. (At Eastern Arc, where I work, a recent analysis of staff questionnaires showed how virtual working and lockdown had impacted research.) So expect to see increased activity and many more proposals as the pressure of the last two years begins to ease.
We will understand what levelling up actually is
Well, we can hope. I made this prediction last year and we’re still waiting for the white paper, which has been pushed back from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022. We’ve already had some place-based funding (such as the Levelling Up Fund and the Community Renewal Fund), but levelling up remains somewhat nebulous and seems to be all things to all people. At Eastern Arc we produced a position paper arguing that there needs to be a granularity in how regional need is identified; without it, pockets of deprivation within areas of prosperity will be overlooked, and vice versa.
We will see the democratisation of research
The recent announcements from Research England about QR uplifts for participatory research and research culture suggest the government wants to do more than window-dress the recent R&D People and Culture Strategy. The amounts are small, but it’s a statement of intent.
Allied to this, there are more difficult issues associated with identity politics, no-platforming and questions of academic freedom. These aren’t going to go away anytime soon, and universities will continue to try to chart a course between their academics’ right to undertake research whatever its focus, and the right of their staff and students to be free from prejudice and threat. I can only see this balancing act becoming increasingly fraught and difficult.
We will have more clarity on open access requirements from UKRI
With the publication of UK Research and Innovation’s new OA policy in 2021, universities will have to make sure that their funded research is compliant. However, details are still sketchy: universities have been hoping for further guidance from UKRI, and have concerns about the costs of implementing the new policy. We’re still waiting for more information on articles, and more detail about monographs is expected in the third quarter of 2022. Watch this space.
We will know the outcome of the REF
If you’ve not done so already, mark 12 May in your calendar. At midday the results of the Research Excellence Framework 2021 will be announced. We’ll know the overall quality profile for each submission by unit of assessment (UOA), which, like Roger Ebert film reviews, uses a slightly odd, base four-star rating system. If the excitement is all too much for you, bear in mind that 12 May is also national limerick day and nutty fudge day. Make of that what you will. In addition, the programme to assess the future of research assessment was launched in May 2021; although no timeline is given, we may see initial findings and recommendations from this in 2022.
We will get some certainty on the future direction of UKRI
After a long wait, 2021 finally gave us the Comprehensive Spending Review. It was relatively good news for research: the government is still promising to increase research and innovation funding to £22 billion per annum, but the timetable has been pushed back to 2026-27. Given this, UKRI and its constituent councils are drafting a five-year strategy and delivery plans.
At the same time, there’s another review of the body, led by David Grant, due to report in the early summer. The research councils were previously reviewed in 2014 by Paul Nurse, who was then commissioned to do another earlier this year. If I was UKRI chief exec, I’d be slightly paranoid about this level of scrutiny. Whatever the focus and methodology, let’s hope that all the reviews use a base four-star rating system for the results. Anything else would just be wrong.
We will know more about options for international funding
Well, when I say ‘will’ I really mean ‘should’. Last year there was the promise of UK association with Horizon Europe; now this is looking increasingly unlikely. That the UK was not included in a recent meeting to discuss EU R&D priorities is the latest sign to point away from association. At the same time the government has promised to restore overseas aid by the end of the parliament. Together, will this mean a dusting off of the Smith-Reid review and plans for a discovery fund? I wouldn’t be surprised.
We will see Aria take off
A little like levelling up, there’s been a lot of talk about the new Advanced Research and Innovation Agency (Aria) and scant detail. All this is set to change in 2022: legislation for the new agency is going through parliament and the funder is due to power up in 2022. However, the budget is relatively small (£800m over four years), so don’t expect flying cars any time soon. There, at least, is a prediction you can rely on: no flying cars in 2022. You heard it here first.
A version of this article first appeared in Funding Insight in December 2021 and is reproduced with kind permission of Research Professional. For more articles like this, visit www.researchprofessional.com., and is republished here with kind permission